Navigating Dependency Updates: What Influences a Developer's Strategy?
Keeping software dependencies up to date is a balancing act. Developers want to integrate the latest features, security patches, and bug fixes, but they also need to avoid updates that might introduce breaking changes. While Semantic Versioning (SemVer) was designed to help with this process, not all developers strictly follow its guidelines. Some prefer more restrictive update strategies, while others lean towards more flexible approaches. The choice often depends on project stability, team policies, and the nature of the software being developed, and the standards and best practices of the broader ecosystem.
To better understand how these decisions are made, researchers analyzed over 112,000 npm packages to examine how various characteristics of a dependency package influence the update strategies of its dependents. By looking at 19 attributes including package age, number of dependents, update frequency, and the number of open issues they built a predictive model that significantly outperformed baseline approaches. Their method improved prediction accuracy by at least 72% and more closely aligned with how developers manage updates, compared to npm’s default behavior.
The findings show that certain package traits can influence how likely developers are to adopt newer versions. For example, packages with many dependents or a long history tend to be updated more cautiously by their users. In contrast, packages that release updates frequently or exhibit certain issue-tracking patterns may prompt more varied update strategies in dependent projects.
Projects with a clearly defined release process, such as consistent versioning practices, show more predictable update patterns. Reaching a major release milestone like version 1.0.0 typically signals substantial changes and influences the way dependent projects adopt updates. Active maintainers and strong community engagement also play a role in ensuring that updates are reliable and beneficial to the ecosystem.
A qualitative review of 160 packages revealed that update strategies typically remain consistent over time, but not always. Some experience key turning points. Reaching a major release milestone like version 1.0.0, for example, often coincides with a shift toward more stable patterns, and breaking changes or security vulnerabilities can prompt a re-evaluation of previously followed practices. As more projects rely on a package, maintainers often become more careful and structured in how they manage updates.
To support reproducibility and further exploration, the researchers have also released a (https://zenodo.org/records/6558365)[https://zenodo.org/records/6558365] containing the dataset and source code used in the analysis